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When playing blackjack, it’s a frequent misconception that the third-baseman (the last player to act before the dealer) has a stronger hand than they really do. This myth states that if this person makes a terrible move, it will always have a negative effect on the outcomes for the other players and therefore “kill” the game.
Blackjack players often face this problem, according to Anthony F. Lucas, a professor of casino management at UNLV and former gaming industry operations analyst, who spoke with Casino.org.
If you don’t let him distract you, even the idiot who bets out of turn, splits pairs of 10, and consults the dealer for strategy shouldn’t effect your game, says Lucas.
Long term, “benefits and costs of poor plays to other players balance each other out,” Lucas added. Sometimes they’ll have to pay for the whole dining room. But there are occasions when they are the only thing that can rescue the meal. Misplaying a hand has no long-term influence on the projected result for the other players.
Flipping the Script
Even while it’s human nature to want to get up and leave a blackjack table if a newbie just helped the dealer defeat everyone, leaving won’t improve anyone’s chances of winning the next time around.
Basic OKBet blackjack strategy simply takes into account the value of the player’s initial two-card hand and the dealer’s up card, but if one were to keep track of the help/hurt outcomes of such choices, as I do, one would find that the hands are all independent.
This alone should be a warning indication of hand autonomy, Lucas added.
You win some, you lose some.
According to Lucas, the problem stems from the mind and is rooted in a fallacy of human reasoning known as confirmation bias. Regrettably, our minds have a propensity to see fresh information as just reinforcing old assumptions and hypotheses.
Followers of this blackjack urban legend “only consider the repercussions of a bad hand,” as Lucas put it. As the author puts it, “They will recognize whenever terrible plays cost them, but they will register whatever gains they obtain from bad plays as dumb luck, with some form of warning label attached,” meaning, “We dodged a bullet on this hand, but please don’t do that again.”
But due of this myth’s endurance, veteran players often recommend that newcomers avoid third base until they have mastered the fundamentals.
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